When will cruising resume in the U.S.? That’s ‘the million-dollar question’

CLEVELAND, Ohio — It’s been 11 months since a cruise ship filled with passengers set sail from a U.S. port. And it’ll likely be several more before it happens again.

The cruise industry in the United States remains in a state of suspended animation, while the coronavirus pandemic rages on.

Cruise lines, meanwhile, continue to prepare for the day when sailing will resume, by updating policies and procedures that they say will keep passengers and crew safe and healthy.

Among the changes: regular COVID testing, vaccine requirements, capacity restrictions, controlled shore excursions and a rethinking of those ubiquitous cruise buffets.

“Cruise lines and cruisers are eager to get back to the seas, but not until they can do it safely,” said Colleen McDaniel, editor in chief of Cruise Critic, an online industry news and review site. “When cruising will resume is really the million-dollar question.”

The cruise industry has been devastated by the pandemic, dating back to those indelible images last spring of ships with COVID-infected passengers, unable to get permission to dock.

Carnival, the world’s largest cruise line, reported losses last year of more than $10 billion – with more to come in 2021.

Passenger cruises are occurring elsewhere in the world, with a handful of ships sailing in Asia and Europe. But no ships are scheduled to sail in the United States until April at the earliest, and it might be significantly later than that.

“I’m optimistic that cruising will return for the summer,” said McDaniel, who expects a slow rollout of ships as vaccinations increase and the pandemic wanes.

In order to resume sailing in U.S. waters, cruise lines must meet a set of guidelines outlined last fall by the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Among the requirements: Each ship must complete a series of test sailings with volunteer passengers to prove that they can operate safely.

As of last week, no cruise line had scheduled any test sailings. (Cruise Critic points out that the cruise lines have had no shortage of volunteers willing to participate in these test runs.)

There are factors, too, outside of the cruise lines’ control that may dictate the timeline for the industry’s resumption, including the spread of the virus in the United States, vaccine rollout, travel restrictions and more.

One thing is for sure: When the cruise lines are ready, passengers will be, too.

A Cruise Critic survey of readers found that 41% of respondents said they were already looking to book a future cruise.

“The interest is extremely high, primarily as a result of such pent-up demand,” said Mark Hollywood, vice president of global operations for the Travel Connection in Aurora. “Many cruisers actually cruise several times per year, so as we approach 10-plus months of no sailing, they’re anxious and ready to go, but most understand the need for safety first.”

Agent Becky Donaldson, also with the Travel Connection, said there may be some hesitancy among travelers as the industry first resumes, but she expects that any reluctance won’t last long. “Everybody loves a deal,” she said. “And they’re running some incredible deals right now.”

If you’re thinking about cruising later this year – or if you’re just curious about how the industry will look when it resumes — here’s what you need to know:

What will be different about cruising in 2021?

McDaniel expects that there will be both short-term and long-term changes to the cruise industry as a result of the pandemic.

Among the short-term changes:

* COVID testing required at both embarkation and disembarkation.

* Fewer options at ports of call, as cruise lines limit passengers to company-sanctioned excursions to guarantee safety standards when off the ship. Company-owned private islands will be popular stops, as well.

* Shorter cruises; CDC guidelines mandate a maximum length of seven nights for sailings through October.

* Capacity reductions, face masks and social-distancing requirements throughout a ship’s public spaces.

Among the long-term changes:

* No more buffets, at least not the way we’re used to them. This change has already been in the works on some more upscale ships, according to McDaniel. On some ships, buffets may remain, but with staff serving the food to promote better hygiene.

* Technology improvements, too, have been in the works for years, but will be promoted with more urgency, in an effort to limit contact between people, reduce waiting and more. Facial-recognition software, for example, can be used speed up the process of getting on and off the ship; and smartphone technology can make it easy for a guest to order a drink from anywhere on the ship, and have it delivered, without going to a bar.

The issue of mandatory vaccines for all on board is gaining momentum, as well. Just this week, American Queen Steamboat Company and Victory Cruise Lines announced that they will require all passengers and crew to be vaccinated, starting July 1.

What about Alaska?

The entire cruise season to Alaska was lost last year – and travel experts are growing concerned that at least part of the 2021 season might be in jeopardy, as well.

In 2019, more than 1.3 million cruise passengers visited Alaska, more than half of the state’s total number of tourists.

At issue is the border closure between the United States and Canada. Under U.S. law, non-U.S. ships that are sailing between U.S. ports must stop in a foreign country. For Alaska cruises, that foreign country is Canada.

(Keep in mind, almost all large cruise ships operating in the United States are registered in other countries.)

The U.S.-Canada border is currently closed through Feb. 21, and it’s not at all clear when it will reopen.

Great Lakes cruising

The ongoing border closure between the United States and Canada could affect Great Lakes cruising this year, as well.

Victory Cruise Lines currently has two dozen Great Lakes itineraries scheduled for May through October of 2021. Victory’s itineraries, as well as those from other companies, typically sail back and forth between U.S. and Canadian ports, including Toronto, Chicago, Niagara Falls and others. As many as 19 Victory sailings are scheduled to stop in Cleveland this year.

A spokesman for Victory said, “It is our intention and hope to safely resume cruising in the Great Lakes, Canada and Alaska this year. The implementation of the COVID-19 vaccine mandate will further ensure the well-being of our guests, crew members and partners.”

New ships in 2021

Safe to say, no cruise line would set out to debut a new ship in the middle of a global health pandemic. But new ships are years in development, and 2021 will see the launch of numerous new models.

This year’s new ships include some that were finished last year, but never hosted any passengers, and some that are still under construction and will debut later in 2021.

Keep in mind – any sail dates at this point are still speculative, as no cruise line has been given the green light to operate in the United States.

* Sir Richard Branson enters the cruise market with Virgin Voyages, which was supposed to debut its first ship last year, the 2,700-passenger Scarlet Lady. It is scheduled to start sailing short, adults-only Caribbean cruises from Miami in May, including a stop at the company’s private island in the Bahamas. The company plans to debut its second ship, Valiant Lady, in November.

* Carnival Cruise Line is debuting Mardi Gras, the largest ship in its fleet, with 6,630 passengers when fully booked. Amenities on this ship are eye-popping, including the industry’s first roller coaster at sea. The ship will cruise Caribbean itineraries from Port Canaveral, starting in late May.

* Royal Caribbean’s Odyssey of the Seas is another extra-large family pleaser, with multiple swimming pools, bumper cars, skydiving and surfing simulators, for a maximum of 4,198 passengers. Odyssey of the Seas is scheduled to debut this spring in Europe and then relocate to Fort Lauderdale in November.

* Holland America is debuting a new flagship, dubbed Rotterdam, the seventh ship in the line’s long history to have the name. The new Rotterdam, with 2,668 passengers, is replacing a smaller ship of the same name that was retired last year as part of a fleet downsizing in the wake of the pandemic. Rotterdam is scheduled to debut in Europe in August and then relocate to Fort Lauderdale in November.

* The swanky Ritz-Carlton hotel brand enters the cruise market with its Ritz-Carlton Yacht Collection, including the debut of first ship, Evrima, with a maximum of just 298 passengers. The ship is scheduled to debut in Europe this summer and relocate to the Caribbean in November.

* Viking continues its expansion into the ocean-cruising market with the introduction this year of Venus, its seventh ocean-faring ship. The adults-only ship can host a maximum of 930 passengers and will cruise in Europe, starting in May.