Cruise sector gears up for a comeback in 2022 despite ongoing travel restrictions

Major cruise lines are continuing to cancel sailings a year after an outbreak of Covid-19 aboard the Diamond Princess brought the sector to a standstill, but there are signs it could be gearing up for a big comeback in 2022.

The latest round of cancellations stretch across the globe, with Royal Caribbean, Carnival, Norwegian, Princess, Holland America and Disney Cruise Line among those axing sailings into 2021 as a result of ongoing travel restrictions during the pandemic.

At the same time, these companies and their rivals are offering a world of itineraries in 2022 and 2023, with some reporting strong demand as vaccines are rolled out around the world.

This February, Oceania Cruises, part of the Norwegian group, announced that its flagship “Around the World in 180 Days” itinerary had sold out in less than a day. While the cruise is not set to depart until 2023, CEO Bob Binder said the appetite for it “clearly illustrates the enthusiasm” some still have for cruising.

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Oceania, which has suspended operations until May, has also reported strong sales for its European and North American itineraries for 2022.

Viking Cruises, which is on a hiatus until June, has also experienced strong demand for 2022 and 2023, with some either sold out or close to it, Michelle Black, the company’s managing director for Australia and New Zealand, said.

“Our guests are passionate about cruising, this hasn’t changed, and nor has their desire to travel as soon as the international borders open… On a global level, demand for cruises is already high, so New Zealand travellers need to plan and book now for their 2022 and 2023 cruise, otherwise they may face disappointment and have to wait till 2024/25.”

Similarly, PO Cruises Australia president Sture Myrmell said the company, which is offering cruises from Auckland to the Pacific Islands from July 2022, has “a big reservoir of loyal guests who are keen to cruise again as soon as it is possible to do so…

“While it is not our usual practice to provide specific booking information, it is fair to say that booking trends for the first part of 2022 are encouraging and compare well with the same period of pre-pandemic 2019.”

The cruise line has seen particularly strong demand from families for cruises during the school holidays in early 2022, Myrmell said.

Crystal Cruises also says many 2022 and 2023 departures are close to full capacity, with world cruises proving particularly popular.

Research by the Cruise Lines International Association (CLIA), the leading industry trade group, confirms the pent-up demand for cruising, with CLIA Australasia managing director Joel Katz saying previous cruise passengers are particularly keen to get out on the water.

“Up to 75 per cent of past cruisers worldwide say they still plan to cruise in the next few years, and 45 per cent say they’d like to cruise within a year,” he said.

“New Zealand has always been a very enthusiastic market for cruising and there’s obviously continuing passion among local cruisers.”

This is despite the fact that, with Covid-19 still causing chaos in many parts of the world and widespread travel restrictions, cruise companies are still in limbo. Many companies announced a “pause on sailing” soon after the virus began its global rampage, leaving passengers on some ships infected, stranded and, in some cases, dead.

The US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention issued a no-sail order, banning cruise ships from entering US waters, around this time, which has since been replaced by a Framework for Conditional Sailing Order, which sets out extensive protocols for cruising to resume.

Despite the new framework, cruising has been slow to restart, partly because initial sailings since the pandemic have returned mixed results.

In November 2020, Norway-based SeaDream Yacht Club cancelled its remaining cruises for the year after an outbreak of Covid-19 on one of its ships, which had been among the first to resume sailing in the Caribbean.

SeaDream said in a statement at the time that “Multiple negative PCR (polymerase chain reaction) tests were required before the guests boarded, but this was not sufficient to prevent Covid-19 on board”.

The sector was dealt another blow this February when Canada announced a one-year ban on pleasure craft in its waters in response to new strains of the virus, upending Alaskan, as well as Canadian, itineraries.

Norwegian told Bloomberg the company would “continue to work with the Canadian government to amend their current suspension”.

However, New Zealand’s recent decision to deny visas to crew members on French-owned cruise ship, Le Laperouse, forcing it to turn around and cancel its upcoming New Zealand season, has shown there is sometimes no room for negotiation on such matters.

Immigration Minister Kris Faafoi said the decision to ban the ship from entering New Zealand should serve as a “message” to other companies, and “that processes around the border are in place to keep us safe”.

Katz predicts there will be a phased resumption of cruising around the world, noting that new health measures have allowed limited cruises to resume in several parts of the world, including Europe and Asia. However, he said it is difficult to predict when cruising will return to pre-pandemic levels.

“What we do know is that the cruise industry is highly resilient, highly responsible and has a proven track record in responding to health and safety matters as the highest priority. We’re confident of the industry’s ability to overcome the current challenges in the longer term.”

In New Zealand, he expects domestic cruises to be the first to launch, despite Le Laperouse’s recent disaster.

“With (new) health measures in place, and given New Zealand’s success in stemming Covid-19 transmission, we see an opportunity to plan for tightly controlled domestic operations, operating in New Zealand waters for New Zealanders only.

“This would allow cruising to resume within New Zealand’s bubble, with 100 per cent testing of guests and crew, while at the same time restoring some of the economic benefits cruise tourism brings to communities around the country.”

There is no official restart date in New Zealand as yet, however.

“CLIA continues to work closely with government agencies in New Zealand to discuss the industry’s health measures and advocate for a controlled domestic resumption at the appropriate time,” Katz said.

Flight Centre cruise specialist Julia Hindman said Kiwis who have cruised in the past have shown interest in New Zealand and Australian itineraries in 2022.

“Clients who have had their plans cancelled, have shifted bookings into 2022, and others are holding credits with the cruise lines, which we believe they will convert into bookings pretty quickly once all the updated health and government requirements are in place and cruising resumes again.”

Many cruise lines are being more flexible with new bookings in an effort to reassure clients concerned about future disruptions, she said.

“Each cruise line is different, however in many cases this involves things like date changes being allowed much closer to departure dates than previously allowed, and when cancellation fees are required, they have options for future cruise credits to be held on file when possible, so that the clients can use them at a later date.”

How will cruises prevent Covid-19 outbreaks?

CLIA cruise line members have committed to a raft of measures developed in consultation with scientists and medical experts from around the world to keep passengers and crew safe from Covid-19 on board, which Katz said are among the most extensive employed by any industry.

“They include initiatives like testing of all passengers and crew, with a negative result required before boarding, as well as detailed policies covering screening, sanitation, distancing, health monitoring and medical protocols.”

Some cruise lines – such as Crystal, Saga in the UK and American Queen Steamboat Company and Victoria Cruise Lines in the US – have announced they will only allow passengers and crew vaccinated against Covid-19 on board. Norwegian, meanwhile, said it planned to require vaccinations for its crew.

While some cruise lines are optimistic vaccines will enable the sector to restart properly, saying they have seen a spike in bookings since inoculations began, others are waiting to see how things play out before deciding whether to make them mandatory.

“It’s too soon to say specifically how the roll-out of vaccines will affect cruise operations, but our industry will continue to work closely with health authorities and medical experts to respond to the latest developments and prevailing conditions,” Katz said.

Even if vaccinations don’t become mandatory across the sector, Katz said its new health measures are designed to provide protection enough on their own.

“They form a multi-layered approach and have been designed so they can be adjusted and updated in the future, depending on medical advances and health authority guidance at the time.”

Some cruise lines have gone above and beyond the mandatory requirements in an effort to reassure customers. Viking, for one, is in the process of installing PCR testing laboratories on all of its ocean liners, from which it will carry out daily tests for all passengers and crew.

In the end though, it will be up to individuals to decide whether they think the potential risks of cruises are worth the rewards.